Not Another Alliance Analysis!

  • Not Another Alliance Analysis!


    Since they seem to be all the rage at present, I've decided to compile my own set of data to share. The account data was collected 19/12/2017 between 15:00 and 18:00 GMT+10 (there was alot of clicking involved!) with all population and village stats being taken at the same moment to help with an easier comparison between the quadrants.


    For ease of viewing, data is compiled into this googlesheet which is open to viewing (but not editing) for all. Please feel free to manipulate the data however you like in your own copies.
    I will only post the summary data here in the thread along with my own analysis of what the data portrays.


    I do apologise in advance for the formatting. I will try to edit it to be more consistent.
    EDIT: I'm going to give up on the formatting. Forum tables are weird. =\ All the data is laid out concisely within the googlesheet anyhow.


    NE: Evil Corp (665, 667)

    Population Total 673478 Village 1061
    Average 6943 Average 11
    STD Deviation 3622 STD Deviation 4
    Upper Limit 10565 Upper Limit 15
    # Outliers Larger 14 # Outliers Larger 14
    Lower Limit 3321 Lower Limit 7
    # Outliers Smaller 18 # Outliers Smaller 12
    Attack Total 2045700 Defense Total 498637
    Average 21090 Average 5141
    STD Deviation 33114 STD Deviation 14119
    Upper Limit 54204 Upper Limit 19260
    # Outliers Larger 11 # Outliers Larger 8
    Lower Limit -12024 Lower Limit -8978
    # Outliers Smaller 0 # Outliers Smaller 0


    Artifacts Small Large Unique Total
    Strength 2 1 1 4
    Speed 2 2 1 5
    Spy 0 0 1 1
    Wheat 1 1 1 3
    Trainer 1 1 0 2
    Storage 2 1 - 3
    Cranny 2 0 0 2
    Fool 1 0 1 2
    Total 11 6 5 22



    Small

    Players who have used trainer Stan Enskive Rephotsirhc Blackbeard Ravenwood Hurst
    # of Days of trainer 4 4 6 4 3 2



    Large

    Players who have used trainer ikr Asriel Dreemurr susanfrench Redemption Netflix Whitecross
    # of Days of trainer 8 5 6 4 3 3



    Thoughts:
    The NE certainly have the best spread of artifacts and have set up an efficient rotation through their trainers (with a focus on both hammers and anvils). They have been surgical in their strikes and have made strong use of diplomacy in order to obtain the most diverse set of artifacts which in turn grants them large utility. The stats appear to show a large number of players which have yet to have their assets tested in a difficult way which will serve them well through to the end game. With the anvil rotations through the trainer, I expect this team will have the most available defense with the most highly protected WW and plan sets backed by the unique wall.
    It is difficult to foresee whether they will be able to stand against the strong EGHs of the NW.

    NW: SB & Zodiacs (SB, Zodiacs, Pawns, Zodiacss, Zods)



    Population Total 596607 Village 969
    Average 5682 Average 9
    STD Deviation 3586 STD Deviation 5
    Upper Limit 9268 Upper Limit 14
    # Outliers Larger 15 # Outliers Larger 11
    Lower Limit 2096 Lower Limit 4
    # Outliers Smaller 17 # Outliers Smaller 12
    Attack Total 1850377 Defense Total 516823
    Average 17623 Average 4922
    STD Deviation 31586 STD Deviation 11591
    Upper Limit 49209 Upper Limit 16513
    # Outliers Larger 13 # Outliers Larger 6
    Lower Limit -13963 Lower Limit -6669
    # Outliers Smaller 0 # Outliers Smaller 0




    Artifacts Small Large Unique Total
    Strength 2 1 0 3
    Speed 1 0 0 1
    Spy 3 2 0 5
    Wheat 2 2 0 4
    Trainer 2 0 0 2
    Storage 1 1 0 2
    Cranny 2 1 0 3
    Fool 4 0 0 4
    Total 17 7 0 24


    Small
    Players who have used trainer Romanio obelix Almighty shivendu
    # of Days of trainer 9 3 2 10




    Large

    Players who have used trainer Z-Fighters Immortals obelix
    # of uses of trainer 4 13 2



    Thoughts:
    SB have been heavily damaged playing protect the king but have catapulted Zodiacs to a strong end game position in the process. With what I presume to be internal alliance raiding by the players in the offshoot alliances, they are focusing on their end game assets with prolonged use of trainers. I expect the heaviest End Game Hammers to come out of the NW and would not find it surprising for SB to continue sacrificing themselves for the protection of all of the northwest. Zodiacs definitely have the most underused hammers on the server and could well make use of the offensive planning abilities of their allies in order to become unstoppable juggernauts mowing down whatever they set their sights on.


    SW: *FU (SNAFU, SUSFU)


    Population Total 779667 Village 1229
    Average 7497 Average 12
    STD Deviation 3128 STD Deviation 4
    Upper Limit 10625 Upper Limit 16
    # Outliers Larger 19 # Outliers Larger 12
    Lower Limit 4369 Lower Limit 8
    # Outliers Smaller 15 # Outliers Smaller 10
    Attack Total 2389353 Defense Total 1022555
    Average 22975 Average 9832
    STD Deviation 31138 STD Deviation 16548
    Upper Limit 54113 Upper Limit 26380
    # Outliers Larger 19 # Outliers Larger 13
    Lower Limit -8163 Lower Limit -6716
    # Outliers Smaller 0 # Outliers Smaller 0


    Artifacts Small Large Unique Total
    Strength 1 1 0 2
    Speed 2 2 0 4
    Spy 1 1 0 2
    Wheat 1 1 0 2
    Trainer 2 2 1 5
    Storage 2 1 0 3
    Cranny 1 1 1 3
    Fool 2 0 0 2
    Total 12 9 2 23



    Small

    Players who have used trainer Zurasmith Jarwa Vendety ShamanKhanPD Kerzi CuvvyKhed Snehorn Hero!! an angry beaver Trollercoaster
    # of uses of trainer 2 4 2 1 6 2 3 2 1 2
    Players who have used trainer General Patton JapocoPD Piedra Cesara SirWilliamPD USS Enterprise Soko FastandFurious Minka
    # of uses of trainer 3 3 3 1 4 4 2 4 4




    Large

    Players who have used trainer Excelsior Malekeith Bow PEAk a Boo Muddy Fluerit Sentinel Wookie The Gnostic dadderax
    # of uses of trainer 7 9 4 4 4 11 4 4 3 4


    Unique

    Players who have used trainer Muddy Wookie Excelsior nut case ProfChaosPD CuvvyKhed
    # of uses of trainer 10 4 3 4 4 2



    Thoughts:
    The stats show a set of hard working hammers and anvils coupled with large accounts with relatively minimal offense or defense points in comparison. The highly skewed offensive and defensive stats are testament to the continued aggression into the SW but one must wonder how weary the accounts may be becoming with regards to troop counts. Fortunately, *FU are graced with the highest amount of trainers and speed artifacts. With the high amount of trainers, they also have the largest rotation list. Strangely, the anvils seem to be holding onto the trainers for greater lengths of time in comparison to the hammer players.
    With the data set as it is, the SW will be looking for their working hammers to carry them through the end game as their EGHs should not be comparable to those in the NW or their anvils as fresh as those in the NE.


    SE: DMX-MAS


    Population Total 348965 Village 546
    Average 6979 Average 11
    STD Deviation 3131 STD Deviation 4
    Upper Limit 10110 Upper Limit 15
    # Outliers Larger 9 # Outliers Larger 8
    Lower Limit 3848 Lower Limit 7
    # Outliers Smaller 9 # Outliers Smaller 7
    Attack Total 1779671 Defense Total 872420
    Average 35593 Average 17448
    STD Deviation 40034 STD Deviation 24468
    Upper Limit 75627 Upper Limit 41916
    # Outliers Larger 9 # Outliers Larger 5
    Lower Limit -4441 Lower Limit -7020
    # Outliers Smaller 0 # Outliers Smaller 0


    Artifacts Small Large Unique Total
    Strength 0 1 0 1
    Speed 1 0 0 1
    Spy 2 1 0 3
    Wheat 2 0 0 2
    Trainer 1 1 0 2
    Storage 1 1 0 2
    Cranny 1 2 0 3
    Fool 3 0 0 3
    Total 11 6 0 17


    Small

    Players who have used trainer Sky zombie Oh My Dick Trickle BlacklistedName Wingzer0 SemiConcedo Rotten
    # of uses of trainer 5 4 6 3 4 2 2 2


    Large

    Players who have used trainer Storeythor Sicilian Pin Wax_N_Bleach Oh My
    # of uses of trainer 1 2 19 5



    Thoughts:

    DMX-MAS are the smallest alliance and yet hold statistics on par with each of the other alliances; the epitome of quality over quantity. That said, with stats as high as they are, they must be feeling the burn and are bound to be running out of assets. I have no doubt they will remain to the end of the server but will need to make use of their hammers to disrupt plans and important artifacts only to have a large impact on the outcome of the game. Although I would not put them in WW contention, this was never their intention and it can be seen they have achieved their own personal goal of mayhem this server. That said, there are still several decent accounts in the SW they could potentially pick up that might be harbouring surprises the other teams weren't counting on.



    Summary:
    Overall, there are a large amount of inferences that could yet be made. If one were to look into the nitty gritty, account determinations are quite clear and the potential health of the assets of each of the contenders can be read into. It is interesting how each of the 3 End Game Metas have their results skewed towards different end game strategies (which I'm sure will cause great headache for the end game masterminds). Time will tell who the ultimate victor of the server will be but it should be an interesting, competitive race non-the-less.


    Jonothan Crane wrote:

    Patients suffering delusional episodes often focus their paranoia on an external tormentor. Usually one conforming to Jungian archetypes. In this case, a scarecrow.

    The post was edited 2 times, last by Scarecrow ().

  • Thanks. I like the different perspectives. Use of trainers tracked to accounts is an excellent point.



    Blackblade wrote:

    and yet everyone seems to love her..It remains to be seen if this is out of fear and indoctrination or actual love


    Scarecrow wrote:

    a bit of both, really


    Clash wrote:

    When those guys with hug-me coats show up, you go quietly...you have to be NUTS to run this bunch



    us1 - SIO Win

    us4 - SIO Win
    us3 - FWB Win

  • Thought there might have been more discussion last night but it seems each team is keeping their own conclusions quiet. *Chuckle*


    Thanks for the feedback to those who have provided it.


    Jonothan Crane wrote:

    Patients suffering delusional episodes often focus their paranoia on an external tormentor. Usually one conforming to Jungian archetypes. In this case, a scarecrow.

  • I think your conclusion that we are "running out of assets" might be too quick. We keep missing the hammers with our def, but with *that many* hammers rolling, we're bound to catch some eventually. In other words, don't underestimate chaos ;).


    Idk what to conclude about the Zodiacs because they're keeping their cards close to their chests.


    And the one thing I haven't said about the SW is that they might be limited to the one wonder slot at -100/-100 which could be dangerous. Think NE will have multiple options. NW might, too. (This is a big reason I wanted to favor NE for the win before I realized how dang much development and defense SW is holding.)


    Looking at that account stats, either you don't know how to play, or you've decided to see how bad an account you can make..?

  • Burn,


    I did make that statement based on the similar statistics to the other quadrants yet with half the numbers of accounts. Each account can ultimately only build a finite amount of troops and, at a base level, more accounts = more troops.


    Perhaps I should have framed my words towards the assets the SE have are less compared to the other quads rather than 'running out'. That said, with so many more hammers coming the way of the SE than any other quad, there needs to be more defense to cater for the increased aggression and, if things were as you said, the SW should be running into anvils more frequently. Instead, as evidenced by the BR thread, most troops seem to be run into piecemeal which is more indicative of the conclusion I posted in the OP.


    I know there are anvils in the SE with a larger number of troops by virtue of having held a trainer for a longer time than most but I doubt this is indicative of the majority.


    Please, don't get me wrong as nothing I said was meant as a dig towards any of the groups but rather conclusions I found from my reading of the data.


    Jonothan Crane wrote:

    Patients suffering delusional episodes often focus their paranoia on an external tormentor. Usually one conforming to Jungian archetypes. In this case, a scarecrow.

  • Nice analysis based on the data.


    The SE sure is doing well in weathering the storm with their limited player base, but it seems from the outside looking in that the fatigue is showing. Time shall tell, of course, and even upon reading this I am sure they will buck up, but I wonder if the north is ready for us.


    Cause someone is going to get it.

  • Thanks. I like the different perspectives. Use of trainers tracked to accounts is an excellent point.

    Tracking who has used each of the trainers definitely offers insight into the long term goals of each of the alliances and allows decisions to be made in how to most effectively close out the server.


    I found it overly interesting that each of the 3 separate WW contenders were using the trainers in different ways. Each of the meta leaders should take that into account.

    Nice analysis based on the data.


    The SE sure is doing well in weathering the storm with their limited player base, but it seems from the outside looking in that the fatigue is showing. Time shall tell, of course, and even upon reading this I am sure they will buck up, but I wonder if the north is ready for us.


    Cause someone is going to get it.

    The SE will persist until the round is over being a perpetual thorn. While I do not think they will be able to do anything like what the SW or NW has been doing, they do have the capacity to disrupt WW plans and important artifacts (which I outlined in my thoughts about them).


    The difficulty for the SW is that they have made perpetual enemies and I find it unlikely the SE will perform any end game disruption on a quad that isn't the SW given the history. Funnily enough, this only adds emphasis to the server plan I had initially outlined for the SW at the very beginning of the round...


    The NE will be capable of weathering any storm from the SW by virtue of their established defensive troop stores. The NW is capable of crushing the largest hammers from the SW with their offensive might running over the SW defense in the process provided they can get the coordination working.


    In closing, I do genuinely wonder who will be 'getting it' as the end of server will be a game of Rock, Paper, Scissors.


    Jonothan Crane wrote:

    Patients suffering delusional episodes often focus their paranoia on an external tormentor. Usually one conforming to Jungian archetypes. In this case, a scarecrow.

  • Nice work Crow,


    The only thing that I thought was weird was this statement. It seems as if the NW will only hit the NE WW. So If that is the case then the SW will only see our EGHs and we will force the SW to hit the NW WW. How about that for changing the tide. Your welcome Zodiacs.

    • It is difficult to foresee whether they will be able to stand against the strong EGHs of the NW.


  • The only thing that I thought was weird was this statement.

    • It is difficult to foresee whether they will be able to stand against the strong EGHs of the NW.

    The statement was more meant to represent an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object rather than directly implying who will hit whom. Apologies for any confusion the statement created.


    I have no clue who the NW will be targeting come end game but unless there is a change in the server dynamic then extrapolation has the south continuing to batter each other and the north continuing to trade hits.


    Jonothan Crane wrote:

    Patients suffering delusional episodes often focus their paranoia on an external tormentor. Usually one conforming to Jungian archetypes. In this case, a scarecrow.

  • While I do not think they will be able to do anything like what the NW has been doing

    really? What has the NW been doing? Other than faking?



    Blackblade wrote:

    and yet everyone seems to love her..It remains to be seen if this is out of fear and indoctrination or actual love


    Scarecrow wrote:

    a bit of both, really


    Clash wrote:

    When those guys with hug-me coats show up, you go quietly...you have to be NUTS to run this bunch



    us1 - SIO Win

    us4 - SIO Win
    us3 - FWB Win

  • really? What has the NW been doing? Other than faking?

    Well.. The NW do have more offensive points than the NE so there is that. *pokes out tongue*
    (I will grant that the NE has historically run into less defense than the NW has in the back and forth between each other.)


    I would find it difficult to deny that in a battle of changing end game potential, that the NW has more than the SE. I'm sure that even you would find it difficult to argue against that.


    Jonothan Crane wrote:

    Patients suffering delusional episodes often focus their paranoia on an external tormentor. Usually one conforming to Jungian archetypes. In this case, a scarecrow.

  • The way it stands now my personal feeling is that 66* cannot match Zodiac and friends. The question I'm sitting with is wether Zodiacs will actually launch an offense or not, or if they just sim it up for the final bangs.