UK1 Server Analysis - by KnowToFail

Hello people of UK1

Since I am bored and am missing forum chatter, I decided to do some UK1 server analysis as of 14.3.2018.

I will split the alliances according to what quadrant they settled in. I will consider every alliance with 10 or more members. Of course every small group can make an impact, but I am looking at the bigger picture here.

P.S. As you can probably tell, I am a member of Betrayed, but I will try my best to stay as objective as possible.

I hope I am not breaking any rules with this post. All the information is public information available through Statistics tab in the game world itself.
As for alliance descriptions, I sent around a few messages. If people responded, I included what they answered. Otherwise, I just kept it blank.

I am looking forward to what you think. What is your opinion on how will this play out etc.

THERE IS A GENERAL CONCLUSION AT THE END

Lets start with SW (-|-):

Right of the bat, we can see that last server winners P (now named GG) settled here. The difference between this and last server is, that Betrayed and GG landed in the same quadrant. Lets see how the story is playing out currently:

Rroughly 39% GG members have secured a good capital.
Roughly 32% Betrayed members have secured a good capital.
Roughly 30% AF members have secured a good capital.

Considering that Betrayed has more players it is to be expected to also have more attack points. But considering they have more players, they have combined less defense points then GG. We can assume that right as of this moment, Betrayed seem to have a slight upper hand on the situation, but 100% not enough to start taking over the quadrant.
AF seems to keep to themselves.

Betrayed clearly has the numbers advantage. They have secured more croppers (due to having more people). If they can transition this numbers advantage with some good coordiantion and leadership, they can take control of SW quadrant.
But lets not forget, last server P (now GG) was against 3 major alliances (Betrayed, Havoc and PoW). These 3 alliances had a clear numbers advantage, but couldnt pull out a win. Maybe this round will be different under different leaderships.

SE (+|-)
I can see 3 bigger alliances in this quadrant. FOL (Followers of Light), LS (Lost Souls) and K.O.H. (Knights of Honour).

Roughly 12% of FOL has secured a good capital.
Roughly 25% of K.O.H. has secured a good capital.

What I gathered from here is, that FOL has the control of the quad in the early stages. KOH has settled further away, so they might be a nuisance later on and LS dont represent any threat as of now or even later on, since they havent settled good capitals or settled many villages overall.

I dont see this quad winning the server. They dont have enough strong capitals. They seem to be behind on "simming" if they wanted to go that route. They will need something major to happen for them to become WW contenders.

NE (+|+)

Roughly 23% of FOX control a good capital.

Roughly 48% (!) of CTL controls a good capital.
Roughly 15% of GWT NE has good capitals.

From here I can gather that GWT NE has a few active members, but others are getting raided/arent being defended at all.

There is/will be a battle for this quad between CTL and FOX. Fox has the numbers advantage. (More then 3:1!) but CTL seems to be more experienced considering the amount of croppers they got with the numbers they have.
Its going to be interesting to see how this plays out. My prediction in that CTL will come out on top, but not straight away. There is a decent amount of players in this quadrant and CTL will have to deal with them and that takes time.
GWT NE will probably fall apart or merge with one of the 2 alliances.

NW (-|+)

MFH. They have been around for a while but has only recently made a transition from being a small for fun alliance to a more serious alliance. They played last round on UK3 and came here right off the back of that. Seem organised, but lets see what the numbers will say.

Roughly 33% of MFH players control a good capital.

Roughly 61%(!) ofthe GotN players have secured a good capital!

As far as I can see MFH are active as an alliance. The attack points justify the amount of members the alliance has. I think the ratio of attack points is interesting. MFH has about 1/3 more attack points, even tho they have almost 3x the amount of people!

Both alliances seem to have a skilled core that leads well. Ive even head that we had our 1st cropper 0ed in this quad as well.
GWT seems to still be present in this quad, while their NE counterpart seems to be falling apart.
If the matchup will be "GWT vs MFH vs GotN", GWT wont be able to keep up, since they havent secured any good capitals. But if they side with one or the other, that could shift momentum in their favour.
I think it is way too early to call how this quad will play out, but it is going to be interesting indeed.

CONCLUSION

This server seems to be A LOT more lively then the previous one. I think that the quad that resolves the internal structure 1st, will have the highest chance of winning the server. I am excluding SE quad, since I dont think there is good enough mass to stay competitive in the long run.
The cores of the main alliances (Betrayed, GG, MFH, GotN, CTL, FOX) seem to be good, so if they are left to sim, they could quite litteraly sim2win. But 1st task of all of these alliances is to clean the quad 1st to even enable simming in peace.

I am looking forward to your criticism. It is my 1st analysis afterall

-SR wrote:

Thanks for putting the time and effort into putting this together.

I do have to say that I think you've missed the mark slightly with some of the categories that you're using to define the respective strengths of different alliances.

Attack/Deff points at this stage of the game are fluffed up by heavy gold use and abusing the auction house, so I don't feel they're the best indicator. Raid count is actually the best indicator out of the top 10 lists to hint at which alliance may have troops/is subsidising their village income the most significantly.

Beyond this, I'd agree that population and cropper details are important but don't necessarily agree with disregarding croppers which aren't 15cs with a bonus over 100%. And considering the percentage of players with what you seem to be a 'good cropper's seems a very one dimensional statistic.

Just my thoughts, but good work and look forward to the next analysis, whether it be.by you or otherwise, when we've had a chance to see how things develop a bit more!

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Yeah, I agree on the capitals that I could also include 9c 100% capitals, but that would take more then twice as much time, since there is already 18 pages for 15cs only. Could put more effort into it.

Regarding the attack/defense points. Its not really an indicator on who is "winning" the fights, but more shows what alliance is more proactive. I shouldve probably included the average attack point/member. Would show more imo. A good % of attack points are still animals at this point of the game, so it just goes to show who goes an extra step to get more resourses. I agree that defense points arent as important just now.

I will probably follow up on this analysis in about 2-3 weeks times, depending on how I see fit.

Thanks for your comment

sorrywecan wrote:

do you mean 600k silver for glad helmet? is that "know how"

please extra step to get resources? once the BP is down farming oases is waste of time and troops

I didnt say that the attack points ONLY represt killed animals. What I said was, that it still matter as of right now. If an alliance has 30000 attack points, and 5% of those are animals killed, that is still 1500 animals. Now if you look at GWT NE, or K.O.H. or LS, alliances with 20+ members and they only have around that amount of attack points, it tells you something.

In a few weeks, that % is gonna be <1% and wont matter much.

It might not sound like much, with with only the EI I got from the adventures, I managed to raid 100k resourses over 2 weeks. Only from nearby oasis, using my hero and bandages. Didnt train any extra troops for that. An example like that can then show in the statistic. Im way below average farmer and still have 407 attack points as of now. Now every decent raider has killed just as many or more animals. Considering there is 30-40 people in the alliances, then it raises/lowers the bar by 400x40=16000. Thats just an average animal killcount done by the allinance. Farms dont generate any attack points, since you arent killing anything.

EDIT: This looks messy. What im trying to say is, that if every member killed on average 400 animals, like I did. Then it can raise attack points done by the alliance by A LOT. Hence making it "an extra step to gather resourses".

MarkokraM wrote:

i would agree on almost everything

but, damn, amount of the spikings on this server is too high! so many heroes spiking, even phalanx and spears, i even saw players spiking with EC's and EI's. I think that counts as farms genereting attack points.

Oh yeah. Agreed. And hero smashing as well. My neighour killed over 300 troops overnight just by smashing his hero into our troops. We calculated he used about 280 bandages hah.

One more thing, why did you downvote my post? Not that it matters, but if its something I can improve on, i would gladly hear it, so I dont make that mistake in the future.

MarkokraM wrote:

nothing in particular, too many likes, that's all
but tbh, when you'll be updating it, it's always nice to see alliance comparisons on gettertools map. It shows preferred locations of settling for specific alliances.
So if it will not be to troubling, try to mash it in

Yeah, I was planning on making that, but when I checked for the maps, everyone was still all over the place, since its only 2-3 villages and it looked messy. Ill make sure to try and include it in the next one, if it doesnt break any rules. Ive heard people had some trouble by having their analysis removed, so Ill have to check with the rules, if its any "3rd party" stuff or something. This was only with the information via the Statistics tab and Crop finder.

sorrywecan wrote:

I see where you are coming from but I wont agree ... attacks points doesnt show anything ... anybody hitting natars will generate attacks points too

So an alliance with 20 members and 5000 attack points against an alliance with 30 members with 35000 attack points doesnt tell you anything?
It does show how active the alliance members are, compared to others to say the least.

They dont show the best raiders or who has the control of the quad. But they do show how active the alliance is. "anybody hitting natars will generate attacks points too" -> isnt that the same as hitting the oasis with animals? Just different kinds of troops.

EDIT: I can agree that defense points in this stage are pretty much useless.

WIM wrote:

I was happy with my 150% 9c, shame it is not a good capital.

Ah, probably shouldnt have put it as "has settled a good capital", but more like a good cropper.
Its easier to track 15cs, since there is already 18 pages of them of only 15c 100%...
Sorry if I offended you.