Greetings fellow humans
So, since there is only about 2 weeks time till WW has to be captured in order to get infrastructure done in time for plans, I decided Ill take a look on how the situation stands right now.
I am going to check certain metas, what their win % is in my opinion and what their game-plan is currently.
On the server, there are currently the following alliances: Betrayed, GotN, MFH, GG, FOX, FOL and CTL.
Lets break it down:
If every alliance would be going for themselves.
GotN - 35% chance to win.
One of the front-runners on the server. Proving throughout the server that they know what they are doing. In the recent weeks MFH have been deleting and are now down to 70 members. GotN morale is high, as it should be and if this would be the case, they would probably end up clinching the victory.
Betrayed - 20% chance to win.
They have been dominating the quad vs GG. They (we) showed weakness when confronted with bigger number of attacks. As the alliance vs alliance goes, they have a chance, since GG are down to 28 members with no sign of resistance. If they are left till the WW alone, they have a shot at a win.
CTL - 20%(?) chance to win.
The reason a ? is in there is because I havent seen anything from them. The win percentage can be anywhere from 20-40%, but since I dont know the capabilities from them, Im not giving them the benefit of the doubt and placing them on 20% (also works out better with other alliance %s )[b][/b]
MFH - 10% chance to win.
They are in a quad with GotN. They have been on the back foot for the most of the server. If it comes to alliance vs alliance, they dont have much chance. They have the numbers still, but I wonder how many are still active as they were 2 months ago. Their leadership is solid, but I dont see them pulling a win alone.
FOX - 10% chance to win
I havent seen anying from them as well. But since I dont trust big number of players, I dont think there is many quality accounts. By that I mean top30 accounts that have been doing work all server and still relevant in the end-game. I dont see many of them, but since they are controling basically almost 2 quads, there must be some troops between them. And the lack of fighting with CTL implies either no defensive losses/resistance or some agreement that we dont know about.
GG/FOL - 5% chance to win
[b][/b]The only way GG win this server, if 90% of all account swiftly delete and they can capture the WW with the remaining hammers that they have. And even then it would be a close call with those remaining 10% accounts
Meta Scenario #1 - Quad v Quad:
GotN + MFH - 45% chance to win.
Almost feels wrong writing this duo, since they have been at eachothers teeth for the whole server. But if they stop the fighting, gather forces and start going outside the quad, they are in a more favourable spot then other 2 quads for example.
FOX+CTL+FOL - 30% chance to win
This is a lot of people over 2 quads. If they would gether together, they probably have enough defense to defend the CTL WKK/Rs and WW/Plans in the future. But as I said. I havent seen anything from any of them. And some FOX rumours arent giving them any favours. I could also be blown away in a matter of weeks by their hammers and that win % could jump all the way up 60. But Its all speculation with them. Been hiding well.
Betrayed + GG - 25% chance to win
Betrayed would get 3-4 hammers from this merge and barely any defense. So this would be a bit empowered Betrayed then a meta per say. And as stated above. Not good under pressure, since there are many recruits in the alliance. They control a fair bit of artefacts. They havent shown anything outside GG hits, still have to prove to be a real contender.
Meta Scenario #2 - My prediction
This is how I think its going to play out.
We wont see any changes for 1-2 weeks. After that, some WWs will start getting names written on. NW WW is probably be controlled by GotN. There have been some altercations with the GotN def vs Losers a while back, so I dont think they would be willing to join with Betrayed. Since they wont be finishing alone, I think they might join with either CTL or MFH. And since CTL havent been active in any way I think MFH is a fair guess. That is a good amount of people, so I dont think more people will join them.
SW WW will be controlled by Betrayed. We have been hitting hard on GG. They dont have the means to hold the WW at all. GG will probably join up with someone that is going to be hitting Betrayed, because of the mutual disliking of eachother.
For the rest of the server (NE and SE) this is how I think its going to go. FOL will join with FOX and CTL will stay by themselves like the whole server. I could also be completely wrong,since as I said. I know nothing about these alliances.
After all of this, this is how it would stand:
MFH+GOTN+GG - 50% chance to win
Betrayed - 20% chance to win
CTL - 15% chance to win
FOX + FOL - 15% chance to win.
Please post how you think its going to play out Probably one of the closest non-com non-tourney server endings Ive seen. Still a few wild-cards 144 days into the server