TB's Spin Zone

  • Like I did in my last server, I intend to leave a few notes as the server progresses.


    Day 76 Progress Report

    08-Apr-2019


    This report is somewhat overdue, so I apologize for that. It was so overdue, in fact, that it had to be removed from my brain via C-section to avoid significant risk to both me and the report. Also, for those of you who read the analysis in early-game, you will notice some abnormalities on this version. That's because what's important 20 days before arties isn't the same as what was important 70 days before arties. Er, perhaps that's not true -- but the methods I can use to figure out who's winning are a bit different. (Spoiler alert: my team is winning.)


    Notes:

    GOT includes GOT and The Hood, and not RWAC. (Plotinus includes RWAC in GOT's total for the reason, I think, that he's taken SEA's/DeI's side on the forum propaganda around it.)

    The SEA includes SEA and SEA 2

    DeI includes DeI's two wings and SWR

    WW includes WW and WW2

    T.S. includes T.S. and =TS=


    So in my data table you will notice 3 proprietary score types.

    1) AW attack/def/raid/climb -- that's supposed to be what the alliance is averaging weekly right this instant. Obviously how much you can raid per week goes up as the server continues, but the idea here is to say "alright, right at this instant, how much can I expect this alliance to raid on an average week if this week were repeated over and over?" The method used to get these stats on just Monday makes them hard to parse, so I'd ignore attack and defense. Only climb and raid are relevant.

    2) TB's Power Score -- strongest alliance gets a 10, and then I guess how strong (out of ten) the other players are. This is subjective, based on the other stats. If I give an alliance a 7, I expect that they are 70% as strong as the alliance I gave a 10. Also: I am always right.

    3) Good Caps / Great Caps -- So the idea here is to capture who's got the infrastructure and capacity to be churning out a significant hammer or anvil this game. The criteria here for a Good Cap was any 15c cap with at least 700 population and a 50% buff. To qualify as a Great Cap, you had to also have either (a) at least a 100% buff, or (b) be at 850 population.


    You can argue over the utility of these measures as you wish. I consider good capitals to be the most controversial. Measuring how good someone's cap development is is hard, though, and consider in your criticisms [You: "but TB, you forgot that if someone builds a cap hammer, their pop will be high! And cap hammers are teh suxxzorz! This measure is teh suxxzorz!"] that cap development IS important and this isn't a totally terrible way to measure it. I mean, it's not a great way to measure it, but it's not awful. It also involved quit a bit of trawling through village screens on my part, so boo hoo to you.


    Final note, not sure where Plotinus' raid numbers will come from. They seem really high given what I see after 24 hours this week given that there are 7 days in a week:



    Overall Analysis:

    So I think that this is still showing overall dominance by GoT. Even despite the war with like 120 players in-quad and spuradic attacks from SEA, GoT is showing the best capital development moving into arties. I strongly suspect that they are building the largest fleet of egh's ("wwks") and won't have a reasonable rival on that score.


    I think DeI has played their hand as best they can, and they have finally picked up some capital locations. (Last report had them nowhere on that.) But it is looking more and more like they don't have the numbers to hold their own. Still calling it "embattled."


    I don't know what to make of the SEA. They obviously have troops (see: raid), but I don't understand why they threw away two perfectly good hammers on MoC/MaC of all places. Cockiness and lack of planning? I don't get it at all. I don't know if this shows something about how the rest of the game will go for them. I do see a lot of quality over there. They have made a move on some croppers (last analysis, they were way behind a combination of SW and WM, which is now WW, and you can see they're behind, but have done quite a bit of catching up, and I can see them being able to make up for it with massive raid numbers.)


    WW is also looking alright, but I hesitate to share my thoughts about my own alliance since I have move info about it than I want to share. I will share that we will win the server, though. It's basically guaranteed. I found that out this morning from a deck of tarot cards.


    Arty Predictions:

    Alright so,

    > DeI picks up a couple arties in the SW but GoT steals them, GoT ends up cleaning house in their quad.

    > DeI picks up a couple arties in the NW and WW fumbles trying to steal them. TS grabs one from the NW as well. Otherwise WW does alright.

    > TS cleans house in the NE.

    > SEA cleans house in the SE, carries more arties than they an defend, and well-done ops by either TS or GoT steal some lewt.

    > SEA tries to steal some from GoT and is rejected.

    > WW tries to steal some from GoT and is rejected.


    I think that effectively lies out enough predictions that something will end up being alright.


    Win Predictions:

    GoT => 45% chance

    TS => 20% chance

    SEA => 16% chance

    WW => 16% chance

    DeI SW => 2% chance

    Shenanigans => 1% chance


    Historical Progress Reports

    p.png?size_mode=5
    Current server: Salgexicon on Anglosphere 7. (For prior servers, see profile.)

    Looking at that account stats, either you don't know how to play, or you've decided to see how bad an account you can make..?

    Post was edited 28 times, last by The Burninator ().

  • Seems like everyone is confed or napped up already anouther dull round for sure

    What alliance are you in?


    Sure, there are accounts in the non-SW quads that can (and should) be lost, but those major accounts -- basically all of them with good croppers, need to not fight one another if there are going to be enough resources pointed at GoT for anyone else to have a chance to win.


    For that reason, I support limited wars in NE, SE, and maybe my own quad to trim down some fat, but I mean, look at the sheer count of 150's. I know T.S. picked up a couple great ones, but two of them (at least) are either grey or right outside it. Hard to build an EGH there. So just consider how unbalanced the EGH count will be.


    There's a lot to be said about that.


    Still, I can see wars between the top tier alliances in the NE and the weaker ones -- I am skeptical of both the capslock kids (MARINES) and the Camelot -- they seem to be prime pickings. I wouldn't be surprised if you see TCF, TS, and TSE attacking them this server.


    In the SW, it looks like SEA will pick up Vik and YEET (despite the questionable choices made by whoever wrote YEET's alliance page), but I wouldn't be surprised if SEA sharpens their swords first on SES.


    I don't anticipate big action between SW and HFB (us), but we shall see.


    And finally, do you really think Del-SW and GoT are going to align? It's that or duke it out, innit?


    Basically, if you think this is boring already, methinks you outghtta find another browsergame ;)

    p.png?size_mode=5
    Current server: Salgexicon on Anglosphere 7. (For prior servers, see profile.)

    Looking at that account stats, either you don't know how to play, or you've decided to see how bad an account you can make..?

  • GoT and del won’t team up there will be tit for tat attack’s nothing major untill after arties I call but I could be wrong we will see

    Alright, how about this:


    Shadow of GoT settled 8|3 (northeast, grey zone). This is like 6h by catapult from Entity of T.S. Closer maybe to that settle from the TSE or TCF dude.


    Grey zone looks more like a war zone this round than in recent memory.

    p.png?size_mode=5
    Current server: Salgexicon on Anglosphere 7. (For prior servers, see profile.)

    Looking at that account stats, either you don't know how to play, or you've decided to see how bad an account you can make..?

  • Dosnt mean anyone will do anything lol from recent servers seems everyone just waits for arties and I can’t really see this server being any diffrent. Gone are the days of smashy smashy severs we’re alliance was at war from week 8 they was the good days

  • Nice table. :thumbsup:, but being a dull headed, i like the one with text in simple english to explain things.


    That SE quad seems to be completely empty . Del_SW should have settled there, this is stupid to settle in a quad which is already occupied by a strong pre team. They should have done some home work before settling blindly.

    UK3: White Walker

    UK2: White Walker

  • But by settling in the SE, Del Sw would instead have me as their enemy. I'd like to think they made an active choice here, preferring to fight GoT. :saint:

  • Grey zone looks more like a war zone this round than in recent memory.

    Grey zone is always chaotic from what I have seen..

    Other than that, analysis seems spot on.. Good job..

    s1 : Storeythor http://travian-reports.net/us/report/2674061c50d

    Gotta be talented to look after 2 WW's simultaneously. Or crazy... Crazy seems more like it.


    The more I read of OdinLoki's posts, the more I want to play alongside him. Not for the results, as frequently good as they are, but for the sheer fun he seems to have at it. Would + rep if I could, man. Always enjoy reading your stuff... and mostly cringe at the results contained in 'em. :crying:


    Storeythor,most offensive/defensive account holder on the server.


    He's a nut and the more the odds are stacked against him, the better he seems to come out of it.

  • The OP has been updated for day 33 stats. I apologize for the text wall -- there's a TL;DR if you scroll down.

    p.png?size_mode=5
    Current server: Salgexicon on Anglosphere 7. (For prior servers, see profile.)

    Looking at that account stats, either you don't know how to play, or you've decided to see how bad an account you can make..?

  • The Spin - quad by quad

    The SE has shaken out pretty cleanly. SWR is allied to the SEA. They look strong because there is virtually no chance that this quad will fall apart at this point. That said, I think the prior stats make it pretty clear that in terms of player base, this quad remains weaker as a whole than the SW or NE. You can see that in the sim stats (pop per player) and the cropper stats (% of players with good 15c's). At this point, those two things do a lot in determining who will have power come arties. So my read on the SE is that it's a tiger, but if the NE consolidates, the SEA will lose its position as the apparent major threat to GoT this server.


    Sea and SWR aren't allied, SWR is allied to DeI Sw against GoT (I'm pretty sure they aren't even located in the south east, considering their name is South West Raiders :P)

    Overall good analysis again though

  • ...whoops.


    Chalk that one up to it being late at night :p.


    Fortunately SWR is at the point of irrelevance so that mistake doesn’t materially change the analysis overall. (Luckily on my part :p)

    p.png?size_mode=5
    Current server: Salgexicon on Anglosphere 7. (For prior servers, see profile.)

    Looking at that account stats, either you don't know how to play, or you've decided to see how bad an account you can make..?

  • The NE is still a mess. T.S. is far and away the most skilled set of players on this server. Hat's off to Nimmo for assembling that group.

    This, in spite of having me on the team.. lol

    s1 : Storeythor http://travian-reports.net/us/report/2674061c50d

    Gotta be talented to look after 2 WW's simultaneously. Or crazy... Crazy seems more like it.


    The more I read of OdinLoki's posts, the more I want to play alongside him. Not for the results, as frequently good as they are, but for the sheer fun he seems to have at it. Would + rep if I could, man. Always enjoy reading your stuff... and mostly cringe at the results contained in 'em. :crying:


    Storeythor,most offensive/defensive account holder on the server.


    He's a nut and the more the odds are stacked against him, the better he seems to come out of it.

  • Fair and well informed analysis.


    On the issue of farming, I’d argue that it’s been relatively bloodless in the North more because the South is absolutely infested with spikers than because of any greater efficiency on the part of the Nothern alliances.


    Two newly spiked villages on my farm lists today already and I’d be a fairly humble farmer. It’s been happening to my allies and I since the we started raiding and only gets worse.


    To the credit of SWR, they booted out one of their better accounts when it was found he was spiking.


    I like the word “embattled”, “beleaguered” would have been a nice one too.

  • Two newly spiked villages on my farm lists today already and I’d be a fairly humble farmer. It’s been happening to my allies and I since the we started raiding and only gets worse.

    I am fairly sure I've lost a couple hundred imps to spikes so far.

    Can't imagine every quadrant being this bad, can't say that for certain though.

  • On the issue of farming, I’d argue that it’s been relatively bloodless in the North more because the South is absolutely infested with spikers than because of any greater efficiency on the part of the Nothern alliances.

    I mean, not hitting as many spikes is more efficient. I don't necessarily mean it's because of the skill of the farmers, but, the farming does seem better in the North on this score.

    I am fairly sure I've lost a couple hundred imps to spikes so far.

    Can't imagine every quadrant being this bad, can't say that for certain though.

    It doesn't appear to be as bad here.

    p.png?size_mode=5
    Current server: Salgexicon on Anglosphere 7. (For prior servers, see profile.)

    Looking at that account stats, either you don't know how to play, or you've decided to see how bad an account you can make..?

  • I get the feeling the SW is as bad as the SE which are both far worse than the North.



    We’ve identified two independents in the SW who are definite culprits, but I believe there are a lot more than two at it.