Like I did in my last server, I intend to leave a few notes as the server progresses.
Day 173 Progress Report
This is very overdue.
So, without further ado,
Change in player subtracts from last report, a long time ago. TS+SEA have seen a lot of deletes. So has DeI. GoT and WW have seen fewer, but still some.
So my quick analysis of this:
1) GoT is still in the lead but is under pressure. Attacks from WW/DeI and maybe OBV are hurting their growth. However, their player retention is excellent and they are still in the lead stats-wise.
2) GoT has the best arty mix and WW has the worst. However, from the rotations on trainers I've seen, WW is the only alliance really rotating its trainers to significant and substantial effect. Oh what I'd do with one of those trainers GoT or OBV are wasting... Also, despite having the overall best arty mix, if someone steals GoT's wall, they have no wall at all...
3) Unrelated to what was posted -- I find OBV's wonders to be weird. Cruiser's has very low growth and no cluster, leading me to believe they're not really building a WW there. DJx's is growing fast like they're building a barracks and fields not like they're building GG/GW, which leads me to believe they're not really building a WW there either. Maybe they are and aren't worried about running out of time for infrastructure though. (Or haven't calculated it and don't realize they have to build GG/GW now.)
So the moment you've all been waiting for:
Win chances ==
GoT -> 45%
WW -> 40%
OBV -> 15%
Come at my analysis, bro.
Historical Progress Reports
Day 76 Progress Report
This report is somewhat overdue, so I apologize for that. It was so overdue, in fact, that it had to be removed from my brain via C-section to avoid significant risk to both me and the report. Also, for those of you who read the analysis in early-game, you will notice some abnormalities on this version. That's because what's important 20 days before arties isn't the same as what was important 70 days before arties. Er, perhaps that's not true -- but the methods I can use to figure out who's winning are a bit different. (Spoiler alert: my team is winning.)
GOT includes GOT and The Hood, and not RWAC. (Plotinus includes RWAC in GOT's total for the reason, I think, that he's taken SEA's/DeI's side on the forum propaganda around it.)
The SEA includes SEA and SEA 2
DeI includes DeI's two wings and SWR
WW includes WW and WW2
T.S. includes T.S. and =TS=
So in my data table you will notice 3 proprietary score types.
1) AW attack/def/raid/climb -- that's supposed to be what the alliance is averaging weekly right this instant. Obviously how much you can raid per week goes up as the server continues, but the idea here is to say "alright, right at this instant, how much can I expect this alliance to raid on an average week if this week were repeated over and over?" The method used to get these stats on just Monday makes them hard to parse, so I'd ignore attack and defense. Only climb and raid are relevant.
2) TB's Power Score -- strongest alliance gets a 10, and then I guess how strong (out of ten) the other players are. This is subjective, based on the other stats. If I give an alliance a 7, I expect that they are 70% as strong as the alliance I gave a 10. Also: I am always right.
3) Good Caps / Great Caps -- So the idea here is to capture who's got the infrastructure and capacity to be churning out a significant hammer or anvil this game. The criteria here for a Good Cap was any 15c cap with at least 700 population and a 50% buff. To qualify as a Great Cap, you had to also have either (a) at least a 100% buff, or (b) be at 850 population.
You can argue over the utility of these measures as you wish. I consider good capitals to be the most controversial. Measuring how good someone's cap development is is hard, though, and consider in your criticisms [You: "but TB, you forgot that if someone builds a cap hammer, their pop will be high! And cap hammers are teh suxxzorz! This measure is teh suxxzorz!"] that cap development IS important and this isn't a totally terrible way to measure it. I mean, it's not a great way to measure it, but it's not awful. It also involved quit a bit of trawling through village screens on my part, so boo hoo to you.
Final note, not sure where Plotinus' raid numbers will come from. They seem really high given what I see after 24 hours this week given that there are 7 days in a week:
So I think that this is still showing overall dominance by GoT. Even despite the war with like 120 players in-quad and spuradic attacks from SEA, GoT is showing the best capital development moving into arties. I strongly suspect that they are building the largest fleet of egh's ("wwks") and won't have a reasonable rival on that score.
I think DeI has played their hand as best they can, and they have finally picked up some capital locations. (Last report had them nowhere on that.) But it is looking more and more like they don't have the numbers to hold their own. Still calling it "embattled."
I don't know what to make of the SEA. They obviously have troops (see: raid), but I don't understand why they threw away two perfectly good hammers on MoC/MaC of all places. Cockiness and lack of planning? I don't get it at all. I don't know if this shows something about how the rest of the game will go for them. I do see a lot of quality over there. They have made a move on some croppers (last analysis, they were way behind a combination of SW and WM, which is now WW, and you can see they're behind, but have done quite a bit of catching up, and I can see them being able to make up for it with massive raid numbers.)
WW is also looking alright, but I hesitate to share my thoughts about my own alliance since I have move info about it than I want to share. I will share that we will win the server, though. It's basically guaranteed. I found that out this morning from a deck of tarot cards.
> DeI picks up a couple arties in the SW but GoT steals them, GoT ends up cleaning house in their quad.
> DeI picks up a couple arties in the NW and WW fumbles trying to steal them. TS grabs one from the NW as well. Otherwise WW does alright.
> TS cleans house in the NE.
> SEA cleans house in the SE, carries more arties than they an defend, and well-done ops by either TS or GoT steal some lewt.
> SEA tries to steal some from GoT and is rejected.
> WW tries to steal some from GoT and is rejected.
I think that effectively lies out enough predictions that something will end up being alright.
GoT => 45% chance
TS => 20% chance
SEA => 16% chance
WW => 16% chance
DeI SW => 2% chance
Shenanigans => 1% chance
Day 33 Progress Report
Hey all, welcome back to the Spin Zone. I remain your host, The Burninator. Here's some data.
** When DeI SW A and The Hood did not show up in top 10 stats, I used a formula to grow the stat in question. That formula was to assume that for the given stat, the not-showing wing made a similar amount per development as the main wing. (So if GoT got 842 raid per population, I assumed The Hood got 842 raid per population as well, and added that in.) This may be a source of error, but I do not suspect that this would materially impact the rankings of GoT or DeI.
And without any context at all, here's who's who, according to me totally fair and unbiased (TM) opinion.
The Spin - quad by quad
The SE has shaken out pretty cleanly. SWR is allied to the SEA. They look strong because there is virtually no chance that this quad will fall apart at this point. That said, I think the prior stats make it pretty clear that in terms of player base, this quad remains weaker as a whole than the SW or NE. You can see that in the sim stats (pop per player) and the cropper stats (% of players with good 15c's). At this point, those two things do a lot in determining who will have power come arties. So my read on the SE is that it's a tiger, but if the NE consolidates, the SEA will lose its position as the apparent major threat to GoT this server.
The NE is still a mess. T.S. is far and away the most skilled set of players on this server. Hat's off to Nimmo for assembling that group. There are more than enough of them to wreak havoc somewhere, and I would not be surprised if they tip the balance of the server for someone. Sign me up for not contesting the grey zone against this, please. I want to point out that T.S. seems to have farming efficiently (eg. without losses) down to a science. Only WM even comes close. (Look at attack points vs raid -- notice which alliances get raid without having to fight troops. It would appear that the raid in the NE and NW, at least for T.S. and WM, is pretty sweet.) T.S. out of the way, though, TCF, Camelot, and the Marines have a few good players each, but I don't see much quality from them as a whole. I certainly hope that those players are looking to jump to T.S., where they much more properly seem to belong.
The NW has gotten messier, not cleaner, since last report. WM is playing quality over quantity for sure, as can be seen in those per player rankings, but SW has a ton of great quality as well. These two alliances do not appear to be in conflict at all, but given how closely matched they seem, a conflict would likely be devastating for both sides. Fully consolidated, SW and WM would rival the SEA for second place against GoT. It's not at all obvious whether the SEA is stronger than WM + SW or vice versa. But were that to happen, the server looks like it could plausibly go to a serious 3-way contest, with T.S. playing spoiler. (I don't see T.S. building a wonder, but hey, if they do, it's a real 4-way contest and that'd be super fun.) The left-out member here is fallen. I don't get fallen. What are they doing? They seem to know how to build troops and sim but uh, zero good croppers? That almost takes talent. I am highly skeptical of this group.
The SW has gotten fun. You've all read the forum and know there have been fireworks. My reading of the situation is that DeI SW is losing. They're far behind when it comes to later game assets (croppers and development), and not scoring big enough victories in catting down GoT fields. They saw some great early success, but I read it as GoT striking back fairly effectively. DeI SW has begun retreating a bit into the NW, and I have seen pitched battles between SW/WM and DeI SW. So I'd describe DeI as "embattled," but they certainly seem to have quite a few assets left.
The TL;DR Version
Camelot, Fallen, Marines, and SWR are in danger of not being worth tracking anymore. The SW seems to be resolving in favor of GoT in the long term but DeI is by no means not a threat. The NW is divided in half but would be strong united. The SE is strong united. The NE is the strongest but most fractured quad.
GoT is still a juggernaut -- the stats don't lie. By pop, by quality, and by secure croppers and development, GoT is the team to beat and it will take a lot to stop them.
GoT == 48% chance or so.
SEA == 18% chance or so.
WM + SW == 13% chance or so.
T.S. + something == 13% chance or so.
DeI SW == 6% chance or so.
Shenanigans == 2% chance or so.
Day 12 Progress Report
Hello, world. Welcome to the Spin Zone. I'm your host, The Burninator. Some things you should know about me: I'm a good looking, foul-smelling, dragon who is bad at travian, but (hopefully) good at thinking. I'm pretty sure there are alliances on this server that I haven't made fun of yet, and that's really what this space is for. So, without further ado,
Text version, if you struggle with the image, is at the bottom hidden in a spoiler. (The text version is worse for me, but.)
Spin me, TB!
Alright, so the stats don't lie. GoT is a juggernaut. They've got a lock on sooo many of the top 100 players and a huge proportion of the good 15c's. But there is a lot in the NE, and I would keep an eye on my team. We've got a lot of good players. (See things like raid per player.) SE is weak, but can consolidate easily -- they won't be a non-factor if they unite, although weaker than NW united I think. NW and NE united can beat GOT. Challenge is NE has to unite. I don't think uniting two allies in the NW is hard :p
|Players||Top 100 Players||Pop||Pop Rank||Pop per Player||Per Player Rank||Raid||Raid per player||Raid per player rank||Attack||Attack per player||Def||Def per player||150% 15c’s||100-125% 15c’s||Total Good Croppers|
|Camelot||44||3||11,298||4||257||8||Not top 10||< 20,227||4,196||95||475||11||0||1||1|
|T.S.||20||15||7,458||9||373||1||Not in top 10||< 44,500||3,272||164||124||6||6||9||15|
|SES||34||1||6,718||198||Not in top 10||26,176||1,779||52||257||8||0||0||0|
|Vik||8||3||2,678||335||2||Not in top 10||< 111,250||1,666||208||28||4||0||1||1|
|YEET||7||0||1,796||257||8||Not in top 10||< 127,143||1,414||202||212||30||0||0||0|
|SWR||24||1||5,653||236||Not in top 10||< 37,038||1,991||83||215||9||0||0||0|
|1) GoT stats are a composition of three wings (The Hood, LaP-GoT, SoS and GoT), Del-SW of two wings (Del-SW, and Del-SW A). Since wings weren’t in top 10 raid, I assumed 500k/wing, but only gave GoT 2 wings.|
|2) “HFB” is currently labeled “The LAND.” You’re welcome.|
|3) There are several players not aligned with a major alliance that are ignored in the totals.|