A simple analysis based on player locations, rankings and other information that every outsider who doesn’t play on the server can find.
I only look at allies with at least 10 or more members.
The whole map currently as on 1 january 2021 (day 37):
Disney & Smurfs (104 players)
As biggest confed in the SW with a lot of strong players spread over their whole quad, Disney will probably take control of their area. Maybe they will be a hassle too for allies in other quads because of their dominant position at the Grey zone.
Machine & PG13 (87 players)
While most of their players are located at the SW, they have a fair amount of members in the SE too. Being probably not a premade, will they stand up against their rivals and prove that a newly formed alliance can be just as strong?
MYTH (28 players)
Almost every member of MYTH settles not much further than a few tiles from their spawn. Did the other allies take all the good croppers before them or did they choose to not settle further away because they are less experienced? Soon or later their lack of good croppers will hinder their growth and potential of building huge hammers/anvils. Will they be absorbed by the other SW allies or will there only be a future of being farmed for them?
SYND&CSYND (110 players)
As the only really big ally in the SE, The Syndicate will have no problem taking the SE for themselves. Or could they get problems with the SE-players of AG, PG13 and Machine? Another hinderance could be the Grey zone players of Disney who are close to the spawns of a lot of Syndicate members.
Lair (39 players)
Being the underdog of the SE, will they be recruited by SYND or rather being used as farms? Assuming SYND doesn’t want a third wing (or do they?), there will be only place for the best of their players. Or will they work together with Machine (and eventually PG13?), which they have a NAP with?
AG & AG. (89 players)
Having the most players and a good amount of good croppers, this seems to be the more dominant ally in the NE. They claim to have defeated S&T already on their allypage, which seems pretty early for a server that is 37 days old. Their only potential worthy enemy will be the smaller groups Exodus and Weasels and eventually the few other small allies in the NE. Maybe their enemies will unite together to stand a bigger chance against AG?
Their wing AG. Has a good amount of villages in the SE, maybe this will give early game action with SYND?
Ex (29 players)
To me, Exodus seems like they are partly premade with addition of newly recruited members. Interesting to note is that their new villages are all settled further in the quad. Were they late in the cropper race or are they planning to start a stronghold there and catch some of the more important small artifacts? Will they become bigger since recruitment is still open?
Weasels (18 players)
A small group of players, some of them have a good cropper. Maybe they are selective with recruiting new members or they just want to remain small? Probably AG wants to clear them before artifacts show up, will they start working together with other allies when the time is ready?
S&T (14 players), T O S (12 players), Anon (20 players)
The NE is the location with the most small, but not too small, allies. I don’t expect too much from them but maybe the better players of them will be merged with already existing allies in the NE.
North – West
TDT & TDT2 (98 players)
I don’t know whether they started as a premade group, but they have a good portion of experienced and newly recruited players. Their only concurrent is NGU in the NW. Will they work together to fight the bigger premades of the other quadrants, or will they rather destroy each other as fast as possible?
NGU (55 players)
It’s the only ally I know from past servers. They seem to keep their principle of learning new players the game instead of catapulting and farming them. Will they grow bigger and create a new wing to help fighting TDT? Or rather merge to create a strong meta?