Not Another Alliance Analysis!

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    • Not Another Alliance Analysis!

      Not Another Alliance Analysis!

      Since they seem to be all the rage at present, I've decided to compile my own set of data to share. The account data was collected 19/12/2017 between 15:00 and 18:00 GMT+10 (there was alot of clicking involved!) with all population and village stats being taken at the same moment to help with an easier comparison between the quadrants.

      For ease of viewing, data is compiled into this googlesheet which is open to viewing (but not editing) for all. Please feel free to manipulate the data however you like in your own copies.
      I will only post the summary data here in the thread along with my own analysis of what the data portrays.

      I do apologise in advance for the formatting. I will try to edit it to be more consistent.
      EDIT: I'm going to give up on the formatting. Forum tables are weird. =\ All the data is laid out concisely within the googlesheet anyhow.

      NE: Evil Corp (665, 667)
      Population Total673478Village1061
      Average6943Average11
      STD Deviation3622STD Deviation4
      Upper Limit10565Upper Limit15
      # Outliers Larger14# Outliers Larger14
      Lower Limit3321Lower Limit7
      # Outliers Smaller18# Outliers Smaller12
      Attack Total2045700Defense Total498637
      Average21090Average5141
      STD Deviation33114STD Deviation14119
      Upper Limit54204Upper Limit19260
      # Outliers Larger11# Outliers Larger8
      Lower Limit-12024Lower Limit-8978
      # Outliers Smaller0# Outliers Smaller0

      ArtifactsSmallLargeUniqueTotal
      Strength2114
      Speed2215
      Spy0011
      Wheat1113
      Trainer1102
      Storage21-3
      Cranny2002
      Fool1012
      Total116522



      Small
      Players who have used trainerStanEnskiveRephotsirhcBlackbeardRavenwoodHurst
      # of Days of trainer446432



      Large
      Players who have used trainerikrAsriel DreemurrsusanfrenchRedemptionNetflixWhitecross
      # of Days of trainer856433



      Thoughts:
      The NE certainly have the best spread of artifacts and have set up an efficient rotation through their trainers (with a focus on both hammers and anvils). They have been surgical in their strikes and have made strong use of diplomacy in order to obtain the most diverse set of artifacts which in turn grants them large utility. The stats appear to show a large number of players which have yet to have their assets tested in a difficult way which will serve them well through to the end game. With the anvil rotations through the trainer, I expect this team will have the most available defense with the most highly protected WW and plan sets backed by the unique wall.
      It is difficult to foresee whether they will be able to stand against the strong EGHs of the NW.

      NW: SB & Zodiacs (SB, Zodiacs, Pawns, Zodiacss, Zods)


      Population Total596607Village969
      Average5682Average9
      STD Deviation3586STD Deviation5
      Upper Limit9268Upper Limit14
      # Outliers Larger15# Outliers Larger11
      Lower Limit2096Lower Limit4
      # Outliers Smaller17# Outliers Smaller12
      Attack Total1850377Defense Total516823
      Average17623Average4922
      STD Deviation31586STD Deviation11591
      Upper Limit49209Upper Limit16513
      # Outliers Larger13# Outliers Larger6
      Lower Limit-13963Lower Limit-6669
      # Outliers Smaller0# Outliers Smaller0




      ArtifactsSmallLargeUniqueTotal
      Strength2103
      Speed1001
      Spy3205
      Wheat2204
      Trainer2002
      Storage1102
      Cranny2103
      Fool4004
      Total177024

      Small
      Players who have used trainerRomanioobelixAlmightyshivendu
      # of Days of trainer93210




      Large
      Players who have used trainerZ-FightersImmortalsobelix
      # of uses of trainer4132



      Thoughts:
      SB have been heavily damaged playing protect the king but have catapulted Zodiacs to a strong end game position in the process. With what I presume to be internal alliance raiding by the players in the offshoot alliances, they are focusing on their end game assets with prolonged use of trainers. I expect the heaviest End Game Hammers to come out of the NW and would not find it surprising for SB to continue sacrificing themselves for the protection of all of the northwest. Zodiacs definitely have the most underused hammers on the server and could well make use of the offensive planning abilities of their allies in order to become unstoppable juggernauts mowing down whatever they set their sights on.

      SW: *FU (SNAFU, SUSFU)

      Population Total779667Village1229
      Average7497Average12
      STD Deviation3128STD Deviation4
      Upper Limit10625Upper Limit16
      # Outliers Larger19# Outliers Larger12
      Lower Limit4369Lower Limit8
      # Outliers Smaller15# Outliers Smaller10
      Attack Total2389353Defense Total1022555
      Average22975Average9832
      STD Deviation31138STD Deviation16548
      Upper Limit54113Upper Limit26380
      # Outliers Larger19# Outliers Larger13
      Lower Limit-8163Lower Limit-6716
      # Outliers Smaller0# Outliers Smaller0

      ArtifactsSmallLargeUniqueTotal
      Strength1102
      Speed2204
      Spy1102
      Wheat1102
      Trainer2215
      Storage2103
      Cranny1113
      Fool2002
      Total129223



      Small
      Players who have used trainerZurasmithJarwaVendetyShamanKhanPDKerziCuvvyKhedSnehornHero!!an angry beaverTrollercoaster
      # of uses of trainer2421623212
      Players who have used trainerGeneral PattonJapocoPDPiedraCesaraSirWilliamPDUSS EnterpriseSokoFastandFuriousMinka
      # of uses of trainer333144244




      Large
      Players who have used trainerExcelsiorMalekeithBowPEAk a BooMuddyFlueritSentinelWookieThe Gnosticdadderax
      # of uses of trainer79444114434

      Unique
      Players who have used trainerMuddyWookieExcelsiornut caseProfChaosPDCuvvyKhed
      # of uses of trainer1043442



      Thoughts:
      The stats show a set of hard working hammers and anvils coupled with large accounts with relatively minimal offense or defense points in comparison. The highly skewed offensive and defensive stats are testament to the continued aggression into the SW but one must wonder how weary the accounts may be becoming with regards to troop counts. Fortunately, *FU are graced with the highest amount of trainers and speed artifacts. With the high amount of trainers, they also have the largest rotation list. Strangely, the anvils seem to be holding onto the trainers for greater lengths of time in comparison to the hammer players.
      With the data set as it is, the SW will be looking for their working hammers to carry them through the end game as their EGHs should not be comparable to those in the NW or their anvils as fresh as those in the NE.

      SE: DMX-MAS

      Population Total348965Village546
      Average6979Average11
      STD Deviation3131STD Deviation4
      Upper Limit10110Upper Limit15
      # Outliers Larger9# Outliers Larger8
      Lower Limit3848Lower Limit7
      # Outliers Smaller9# Outliers Smaller7
      Attack Total1779671Defense Total872420
      Average35593Average17448
      STD Deviation40034STD Deviation24468
      Upper Limit75627Upper Limit41916
      # Outliers Larger9# Outliers Larger5
      Lower Limit-4441Lower Limit-7020
      # Outliers Smaller0# Outliers Smaller0

      ArtifactsSmallLargeUniqueTotal
      Strength0101
      Speed1001
      Spy2103
      Wheat2002
      Trainer1102
      Storage1102
      Cranny1203
      Fool3003
      Total116017

      Small
      Players who have used trainerSkyzombieOh MyDick TrickleBlacklistedNameWingzer0SemiConcedoRotten
      # of uses of trainer54634222

      Large
      Players who have used trainerStoreythorSicilian PinWax_N_BleachOh My
      # of uses of trainer12195



      Thoughts:

      DMX-MAS are the smallest alliance and yet hold statistics on par with each of the other alliances; the epitome of quality over quantity. That said, with stats as high as they are, they must be feeling the burn and are bound to be running out of assets. I have no doubt they will remain to the end of the server but will need to make use of their hammers to disrupt plans and important artifacts only to have a large impact on the outcome of the game. Although I would not put them in WW contention, this was never their intention and it can be seen they have achieved their own personal goal of mayhem this server. That said, there are still several decent accounts in the SW they could potentially pick up that might be harbouring surprises the other teams weren't counting on.


      Summary:
      Overall, there are a large amount of inferences that could yet be made. If one were to look into the nitty gritty, account determinations are quite clear and the potential health of the assets of each of the contenders can be read into. It is interesting how each of the 3 End Game Metas have their results skewed towards different end game strategies (which I'm sure will cause great headache for the end game masterminds). Time will tell who the ultimate victor of the server will be but it should be an interesting, competitive race non-the-less.

      Jonothan Crane wrote:

      Patients suffering delusional episodes often focus their paranoia on an external tormentor. Usually one conforming to Jungian archetypes. In this case, a scarecrow.

      The post was edited 2 times, last by Scarecrow ().

    • Thought there might have been more discussion last night but it seems each team is keeping their own conclusions quiet. *Chuckle*

      Thanks for the feedback to those who have provided it.

      Jonothan Crane wrote:

      Patients suffering delusional episodes often focus their paranoia on an external tormentor. Usually one conforming to Jungian archetypes. In this case, a scarecrow.
    • I think your conclusion that we are "running out of assets" might be too quick. We keep missing the hammers with our def, but with *that many* hammers rolling, we're bound to catch some eventually. In other words, don't underestimate chaos ;).

      Idk what to conclude about the Zodiacs because they're keeping their cards close to their chests.

      And the one thing I haven't said about the SW is that they might be limited to the one wonder slot at -100/-100 which could be dangerous. Think NE will have multiple options. NW might, too. (This is a big reason I wanted to favor NE for the win before I realized how dang much development and defense SW is holding.)
    • Burn,

      I did make that statement based on the similar statistics to the other quadrants yet with half the numbers of accounts. Each account can ultimately only build a finite amount of troops and, at a base level, more accounts = more troops.

      Perhaps I should have framed my words towards the assets the SE have are less compared to the other quads rather than 'running out'. That said, with so many more hammers coming the way of the SE than any other quad, there needs to be more defense to cater for the increased aggression and, if things were as you said, the SW should be running into anvils more frequently. Instead, as evidenced by the BR thread, most troops seem to be run into piecemeal which is more indicative of the conclusion I posted in the OP.

      I know there are anvils in the SE with a larger number of troops by virtue of having held a trainer for a longer time than most but I doubt this is indicative of the majority.

      Please, don't get me wrong as nothing I said was meant as a dig towards any of the groups but rather conclusions I found from my reading of the data.

      Jonothan Crane wrote:

      Patients suffering delusional episodes often focus their paranoia on an external tormentor. Usually one conforming to Jungian archetypes. In this case, a scarecrow.
    • Nice analysis based on the data.

      The SE sure is doing well in weathering the storm with their limited player base, but it seems from the outside looking in that the fatigue is showing. Time shall tell, of course, and even upon reading this I am sure they will buck up, but I wonder if the north is ready for us.

      Cause someone is going to get it.
    • Quelaana wrote:

      Thanks. I like the different perspectives. Use of trainers tracked to accounts is an excellent point.
      Tracking who has used each of the trainers definitely offers insight into the long term goals of each of the alliances and allows decisions to be made in how to most effectively close out the server.

      I found it overly interesting that each of the 3 separate WW contenders were using the trainers in different ways. Each of the meta leaders should take that into account.

      Wookie wrote:

      Nice analysis based on the data.

      The SE sure is doing well in weathering the storm with their limited player base, but it seems from the outside looking in that the fatigue is showing. Time shall tell, of course, and even upon reading this I am sure they will buck up, but I wonder if the north is ready for us.

      Cause someone is going to get it.
      The SE will persist until the round is over being a perpetual thorn. While I do not think they will be able to do anything like what the SW or NW has been doing, they do have the capacity to disrupt WW plans and important artifacts (which I outlined in my thoughts about them).

      The difficulty for the SW is that they have made perpetual enemies and I find it unlikely the SE will perform any end game disruption on a quad that isn't the SW given the history. Funnily enough, this only adds emphasis to the server plan I had initially outlined for the SW at the very beginning of the round...

      The NE will be capable of weathering any storm from the SW by virtue of their established defensive troop stores. The NW is capable of crushing the largest hammers from the SW with their offensive might running over the SW defense in the process provided they can get the coordination working.

      In closing, I do genuinely wonder who will be 'getting it' as the end of server will be a game of Rock, Paper, Scissors.

      Jonothan Crane wrote:

      Patients suffering delusional episodes often focus their paranoia on an external tormentor. Usually one conforming to Jungian archetypes. In this case, a scarecrow.
    • Nice work Crow,

      The only thing that I thought was weird was this statement. It seems as if the NW will only hit the NE WW. So If that is the case then the SW will only see our EGHs and we will force the SW to hit the NW WW. How about that for changing the tide. Your welcome Zodiacs.
      • It is difficult to foresee whether they will be able to stand against the strong EGHs of the NW.

      US1:
      R4 Poopydiapers Rebels
      R6 Lethal Jimmy: Ethos travian-reports.net/us/report/2303146e4a1
      R7 Julius Pleaser
      US2: R6 Churchill Downs: Bacon (dual) travian-reports.net/us/report/2354796f9e4 The rebuild travian-reports.net/us/report/2354849ce46
      US3: R8 Evolution travian-reports.net/us/report/223457ba7b3 R9http://travian-reports.net/us/report/41163277c7c,545599160af
      US6: R4 Snowflake US7: R3 Lethaljimmy - ACME
    • lethaljimmy_US wrote:

      The only thing that I thought was weird was this statement.
      • It is difficult to foresee whether they will be able to stand against the strong EGHs of the NW.

      The statement was more meant to represent an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object rather than directly implying who will hit whom. Apologies for any confusion the statement created.

      I have no clue who the NW will be targeting come end game but unless there is a change in the server dynamic then extrapolation has the south continuing to batter each other and the north continuing to trade hits.

      Jonothan Crane wrote:

      Patients suffering delusional episodes often focus their paranoia on an external tormentor. Usually one conforming to Jungian archetypes. In this case, a scarecrow.
    • Quelaana wrote:

      Scarecrow wrote:

      While I do not think they will be able to do anything like what the NW has been doing
      really? What has the NW been doing? Other than faking?
      Well.. The NW do have more offensive points than the NE so there is that. *pokes out tongue*
      (I will grant that the NE has historically run into less defense than the NW has in the back and forth between each other.)

      I would find it difficult to deny that in a battle of changing end game potential, that the NW has more than the SE. I'm sure that even you would find it difficult to argue against that.

      Jonothan Crane wrote:

      Patients suffering delusional episodes often focus their paranoia on an external tormentor. Usually one conforming to Jungian archetypes. In this case, a scarecrow.