UK1 Endgame Analysis

    • Endgame

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    • Okay, since this is called a UK1 END GAME Analysis, Ill just write it up in here, I dont feel another post is neccessary.

      Currently, there 4 WWs. MFH, GotN, FOX and Betrayed.

      Now a little background on the last 1-2 months development in Betrayed island.

      Here is the alliance def points.
      Leading is Betrayed with 5 396 581 def points. Runner ups are MFH with 3 611 035. After that its like its shown. GG with 2 153 303, GotN with less then 2 million etc. Its in the image, read out the rest :D

      Now, Ive been reading up a lot of "Is Betrayer the worst alliance ever?" "Is Betrayed planning on taking the plans?" "Why arent Betrayed doing anyting?". I took charge of whole operation like 2,5 weeks ago or something like that. The situation is as follows. Betrayed WW is unsustainable. Anyone with 3 brain cells could tell you that. We simply dont have the resourses to defend the cruical items needed for the WW race (WW itself, plans, 5x...).

      "But Dave, why are you then keep building the WW if its unsustainable?"

      Well to answer is simple. Because we can click "build". I know that it will get easily smashed, even maybe by 1 hammer, but at least we are in there. Its the participation that counts, amarite?



      Now, if you do some research, you will realise that in "Betrayed" there are only grey dots and majority of active players is in "Betrayer". It says that our player # is 54 but our actual power is of about 20 members. If that. When I took charge, it was day 170 ish. I spoke to a lot of people that were deemed worthless. I kicked a lot out of as well, since noone else did (innactives).
      "But Dave, why dont you then kick anyone else that isnt in that top20?"
      A good question. What would of have happened if I did do that tho? I would seem like a bigger jerk then I already am by some people. There is simply no point in kicking people at this day. If they really are here till the finish line, kicking them in the last month of the server would be a dickish move and frankly pointless.

      Now, how did we get here. Clearly Betrayed didnt just "roll over and die". I wont be throwing shade at the previous leadership, since it would be again, pointless. We have the most defense points on the server by a large margin. We didnt had a day without warring someone. If it wasnt GG, it was Losers and if it wasnt Losers it was GotN/MFH. I can tell you, I did everything in my power to try and bring it home, but unforutnatelly that wasnt enough.

      Now, I have been granted knowledge of other alliances situation (outside GotN, MFH and GG - Ill assume stufff for the 1st 2 and ignore the 3rd since... they arent going for a WW). GotN are 4th in the defensive points category. Applying the ratio between their hammer # and sizes, I can safely assume that they have by far the most defense out of every alliance. For their end game hammers, I wouldnt put them at #1 in their # and size, but at #2, behind MFH. That is not a fact, but a guess. If they have been using hammers for OPs etc, they cant be as big. I assume they have some stashed away, but looking at MFH, I havent seen that many and their raiding score is #1 as of now. I am not aware of the MFH defensive situation. They have been hit hard pre-GotN pact. I am not aware of their "rebuild" speed etc, but Ill still assume they are behind GotN.

      Now, outisde those 2, is Betrayed and FOX. I thought that after relatively peacefull server for FOX, they would have something stashed and be ready. They were late to plans, still only have 1 and their WW started in a worse shape. They alone will probably achieve less then us and that tells a lot.

      Then there is us. We own 2 plans, 5x and a WW. As anyone in MFH/GotN can probably tell, we arent fit to seriously contend for the win. 1 WWK is enough to destroy us completely and that includes if we leave 5x empty. Also the reason you might have seen us juggling the 5x. In my opinion, its still better to juggle it then give it away freely. Makes us look like fools, but thats just how it is.

      Now after all of this, how I think this is going to play out. There is 2 scenarios.

      #1

      #1 MFH
      #2 GOTN
      #3 Betrayed/FOX


      This scenario means that until 1 WW hits 100, nothing will happen on any front. MFH rolls to vicotry, as decided. Lots of WWK/Rs go untouched or just smashed into something because they can. Betrayed/FOX at #3 is just because it depends on whose WW feels the wrath more of those WWK/Rs. Either us or them, not a big deal.


      #2

      #1 GOTN
      #2 MFH
      #3 Betrayed/FOX

      If GotN play it right, they can snatch the victory. Wait out the other WWK/Rs, then when the consequences of their betrayal would be minimal, strike with whats left. Them having more defense helps and if they have some unknown hammers to others (*cough* powerslave *cough*) they can hit MFH just in time to snatch the win. This scenario only depends if they have a spine or not. Only time will tell.


      This is about everything. I dont think we will see many surprises, besides potentially at a super super late stage.