The Analysis - Fall/Winter Com(3x) Thread

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      Looks like Disney pivoted to -100,100 instead of -100,0. Them and ToH are super close now so we should be in for a good showing from those two. If kicking and screaming taught me anything its that you always pass to the italians which is why I'm putting my early money on them.
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      Analysis #2 - Quad by Quad

      After a period of somewhat peaceful simming, we find ourselves 2 weeks into the server. Just a few more days of simming left before we can all start the good part :D

      Here are the top10 pages (players, and alliances) from last 2 weeks, just to look back at when we discuss the alliances:

      < Top10 Players Week 1 < Top10 Alliances Week 1

      < Top10 Players Week 2 < Top10 Alliances Week 2

      Lets start off with the Northeast, and carry on from there in a clockwise manner.


      > NorthEast - NE (+/+) <


      Perhaps the weakest quad in this round. Yet it seems to have had a lot of action, with last weeks top10 alliances looking like that^. No specific reports have been made public however, perhaps those points just consist of a large number of small attacks. Hence no fancy reports. However if there are any at your disposal, please do feel free to pm me them, or just post them here by yourself, either way will help get a clearer picture to the people not involved in those reports, and will make the server more dynamic
      As soon as we enter the NE, we can spot 2 different metas which have formed since the start of the server. The first set consisting of NEAT, CD NEAT, and A.M.B. (meta 1), while the second one consists of Hawks, Hawks-w, CP (meta 2)

      META 1 - NEAT, CD NEAT, A.M.B



      No. of Accounts - 160
      No. of Villages - 446
      Villages/Accounts - 2.79
      Romans : Teutons : Gauls - 71 : 38 : 51
      No. of Accounts in Top100 - 1

      Looking at the map we do see a cluster around the 100|100, so perhaps their intentions for the server are quite evident. AMB does seem to have a few accounts in the adjascent quads, but cant really expect those villages to survive for long.
      The stats are not ideal, as they average lesser than 3 villages an account, and have a high number of romans followed by gauls. Indicating low gold usage, but hey, we all started somewhere. Hope they do well, learn a lot and end up sticking to the game for the coming years.

      META 2 - Hawks, Hawks-w, Hawks-CP



      No. of Accounts - 146
      No. of Villages - 425
      Villages/Accounts - 2.91
      Romans : Teutons : Gauls - 69 : 30 : 47
      No. of Accounts in Top100 - 1

      We see the hawks meta staying central generally. However one of their wings (CP) seems to be a bit all over the place. Having members from all the quads. They almost look like cata points hehe.
      With almost the same stats, as well as ratio, both the metas stand at the same level of skill. Considering they will have a low level of involvement in the major events in the round, i do presume i wont be talking about these metas again. But they deserve an introduction and I would love for them to prove me wrong. Goodluck to both the sides.

      THE OTHERS - 1STANBUL (1 wing), Aliens (all wings), ToH

      The quad does not end there though. With intrusion from all 3 quadrants. As i had previously stated, ToH and Aliens seem to have moved to the border of NE and their respective quads. Turns out 1STANBUL have an entire wing setup there too. With a handful of accounts in the Southwest (-/-) and majority cross quad. The intrusion most definitely makes NE a little more interesting. I do assume ToH and Aliens will take majority of the artifacts from this quadrant tho. Perhaps a few greats will fall to the 2 metas, due to their placement, but i find it highly unlikely that they will dominate their quad.

      Heres how the entire quad looks (minus ToH and Aliens, since their spawns are in other quads, will be keeping them in those quads) :




      > SouthEast - SE (+/-) <


      Much like the northeast, this quad consists of 2 Metas. The difference however being their calliber. The first set consists of TT ANT, ANT ALL, NOT, ANT R, ANT-TNT, and lastly ANT-HRT (meta 3). While the second one consists of ALIENS®, ALIENS©, ALIENSe, Terra and Terratrum (meta 4). With 11 clans between the 2 metas, we can expect a lot of overlap and clashes.

      META 3 - TT ANT, ANT ALL, NOT, ANT R, ANT-TNT, ANT-HRT



      No. of Accounts - 291
      No. of Villages - 920
      Villages/Accounts - 3.16
      Romans : Teutons : Gauls - 126 : 86 : 79
      No. of Accounts in Top100 - 3

      Not many top accounts, but ive never seen ANT being good at simming anyway. They very much resemble ISTANBUL in their way of playing, as they do launch quite a bit. Looking at the map we do however see a more organised setup than we would have seen a few months ago from their side, which is why i have hope that they will be able to trouble the Aliens meta. Looking at their setup, we see ANT R having a stronghold around the coords 150/-175, while NOT are hugging the border of SE and SW. Perhaps the frontline for an upcoming battle against the metas in SW (-/-). TT ANT meanwhile have moved to the center of the map, the grey zone. The rest of their meta seems to be scattered around central SE. Like i said before, they do seem organised, the question is whether they will be execute their plan as they do seem to have one.

      META 4 - ALIENS®, ALIENS©, ALIENSe, Terra, Terratrum



      No. of Accounts - 167
      No. of Villages - 596
      Villages/Accounts - 3.57
      Romans : Teutons : Gauls - 72 : 40 : 55
      No. of Accounts in Top100 - 18

      I havent added the alliance 'Terratrum' to the stats, as its quite evident that the alliance is full of multis friends to farm for the account 'Throwback'. The stats do however show a large spread within the alliance, in terms of how big an account is. Even tho they have almost 20% of the accounts out of the top100, their averages dont seem to be that high. It is common to see this in metas, however in my experience this does usually mean "friends accs" as those are never heavily golded/focused on simming, but play for the objective, which is to help the main accounts. I do not want to make the entire section for this meta about shady stuff, but there seems to be nothing else to talk about as of now for their side, with throwback jumping millions in top10 in 1 go, it is something which will furstrate the cleaner players.

      A few days ago there were a few exchanges between Terra and Aliens, but they have seemed to make peace now. A further explaination into the exchanges has been done in the thread : wbb.forum.travian.com/thread/5…a-short-story-of-no-scan/ in case some of you may have missed it (Sincerely do hope that other teams share stuff in a similar manner, as it is always well recieved. Brings colour to the bage mood on forum). If we take a look at the map, we can see Terra and Terratrum are setup quite central in the quad, revolving around the account 'Throwback'. As previously discussed ALIENSr and ALIENSc have moved to the border of SE and NE. But the wing which wasnt mentioned before (ALIENSe) seems to be scattered around the quad. I do believe this wing of theirs is not exactly premade, and is willing to take accounts from the quadrant itself. Perhaps to bolster their meta more locally in the quad, and not just have firepower around the border.

      Looking at the stats and the map we do have ourselves the best meta disccussed up until now. With accounts like throwback at their disposal, Aliens do seem to have become a bigger threat than initially thought of. Their numbers are no longer assumed to be under a 100 either, as they will look to once again dominate the server.

      This is how the 2 metas shape up this particular quad.



      With a large number of villages from both sides set up in central, we can surely expect a lot of action coming our way. The first one being shared yesterday travian-reports.net/us/report/709896d4584 (credit: Eric from comx server chat).
      Even tho the ANT meta stands at almost 1.75x times the accounts as Aliens, I do expect the balkans to come out on top. I say this just because of their history, and how well organised they are in setting up their meta. Hopefully someone is able to challenge them more this round whether it be from their own quad or the other quads, which i do believe will happen. Time shall tell.


      > SouthWest - SW (-/-) <


      Meta 5 - ITÆQUILA, WarnITng, ITINF



      No. of Accounts - 155
      No. of Villages - 611
      Villages/Accounts - 3.94
      Romans : Teutons : Gauls - 61 : 38 : 56
      No. of Accounts in Top100 - 20

      Behold the Italians. The strongest meta up until now. With 1/5th of the top100 accounts and averaging almost a 4 villa/acc ratio in their meta, they look forward to dominating the server. If stats is not quite your thing, do take a look at their map. They literally have zones.
      Even though it can be seen that the italians havent really spread out through the quad and gone to 300|300, ITINF can be considered their front line with their location being their spawns -> (-50/-50) or a similar radius. We can expect this wing to do the heavy hitting against the alliances set up in other quads as well take out enemy spawns in their own quad, successfully securing the uniques which happen to spawn in and around the quad. ITÆQUILA pick it up from there and branch out till their desired WW at (-100/-100). With possibly their plan being to wipe out the quadrant and clusters which made the mistake to settle in the area. WarnITng seem to be their furthest out wing. Setting up from their WW up to (-150/-150) and seem to consist of their accounts which will be allowed to sim up in peace, and provide solid counts for mid-late game.
      Keeping this setup in mind I do believe we wont see a more organised team this comx, and even though they are our enemies in game, I cannot wait for them to get started.

      Meta 6 - ISTANBUL, IST@NBUL, 1STANBUL



      No. of Accounts - 144
      No. of Villages - 370
      Villages/Accounts - 2.57
      Romans : Teutons : Gauls - 74 : 43 : 27
      No. of Accounts in Top100 - 0

      After reviewing perhaps the strongest meta this round, we move on to perhaps the weakest one. Istanbul look weak, to say the least. With their stats being lower than Meta 1 and 2 of the Northeast as well. Looking at their map, one would wonder what their plan is. From what I can see, it does seem like they are moving to the (-100|0) WW as majority of their accounts seem to be heading towards the border. And as mentioned before, one of their wings is located completely cross-quad. I do not see the thought behind it honestly, but given that they dont have Italians in NE, I'd say we can expect that wing to survive.
      As the others are however paired up with the Italians.... I do not see this going well for their side. I do expect them to be deleted off the map by construction plan launch. I feel like i should mention the fact that Istanbul has proved me wrong before on the same status, in the round where they matched up against math's squad DD-Ph and I had predicted the same. It did not happen. So just maybe, they can pull something out of the bag. I doubt it tho, as the match up might just be 5 times tougher compared to last time this time around.

      The odd ones out - BYZ, ~V~

      - BYZ -
      No. of Accounts - 57
      No. of Villages - 206
      Villages/Accounts - 3.61
      Romans : Teutons : Gauls - 25 : 13 : 19
      No. of Accounts in Top100 - 2
      Average Pop - 1455

      Here we have ourselves an average alliance quite frankly. Even though they dont seem to have any flashy accounts, they do seem to be doing well in top10s as an alliance. With majority of their villages in central, I do expect them to give the Italians some trouble. They also seem to have a handful of villages up in boonies, so perhaps they do have a plan in mind for endgame. However it is not apparent, which team/meta they will be supporting.

      - ~V~ -
      No. of Accounts - 18
      No. of Villages - 101
      Villages/Accounts - 5.61
      Romans : Teutons : Gauls - 7 : 4 :7
      No. of Accounts in Top100 - 9
      Average Pop - 2629

      There always has to be that small bunch of good players who dont have a proper 45+ ally/meta. ~V~ are that group this time around. I do believe the ally consists of french players, and they do fit in well with the usual comx players, as they love to goldwhore :D. With half their players being in top100, and the highest average pop of any alliance in the server, it is quite visible that they are experienced players. They have however moved to boonies and are peacefully simming. Whichever team/meta they end up supporting, will be considered lucky to have an added bunch of high skilled accounts. No matter their size, I do believe we will see something from them this round. Unless ofcourse, the Italians have something to say about it ^^



      With 31 of the top100 accounts being located in SouthWest, it is quite apparent that this quad is one of the ones to watch. Without much hesitation, I can confidently say that the Italians will prevail.


      > NorthWest - NW (-/+) <


      Last but certainly not least, we have ourselves the Northwest (-/+)



      - Disney -
      No. of Accounts - 54
      No. of Villages - 310
      Villages/Accounts - 5.74
      Romans : Teutons : Gauls - 14 : 17 : 23
      No. of Accounts in Top100 - 24
      Average Pop - 2602

      Having been trailing to ToH for the past couple of weeks in terms of simming, Disney has jumped up quite a bit in the last few days, making them the best simmers so far on the server. It is always scary to let DoH sim up, as I've said time and time again, they build monsters. Similarly to what ive said before, DoH seem to be spread throughout the quad, with majority of their accounts edging towards the NW/SW border side. They are not quite hugging the border, but you get the point.

      - ToH -
      No. of Accounts - 46
      No. of Villages - 258
      Villages/Accounts - 5.61
      Romans : Teutons : Gauls - 16 : 17 : 13
      No. of Accounts in Top100 - 20
      Average Pop - 2587

      ToH has had somewhat of a similar start to Disney, however as the stats may show they have fallen a little behind in terms of simming. As the alliance continues to sim up on the border of NE and NW, we can expect accounts of a similar calliber to Diseny. What each alliance does with their accounts will ofcourse be the turning point for either side.
      The first battle of a long war to come for both the sides has already begun. The battle between Bagheera and He-Man. It has been ongoing for about 10 days now (ever since the extended bp ended) with He-Man taking the first, may i add 'blind', strike at Bagheera, and failing: gettertools.com/report/2964/x5fKV2mT.
      *Sigh*
      Bagheera then followed up by attempting to raid He-Man for several days, sometimes succeeding, sometimes failing. Until 2 days ago, when Bagheera ended up launching their hammer at He-Man, may i add 'not blindly'. Having had scouted it, one would think they wouldnt splat. Maybe the smithy levels of troops were not inputted into the combat simulation. Whatever the reason may be, this is how it turned out:
      gettertools.com/report/2964/Ap2TUqvT
      *Sigh*
      So in conclusion, both the sides consist of nubs. Nah, but seriously, I do believe I am too close to this entire scene to evaluate it being completely unbiased. Id like to think its impossible to do that. Even when it comes to analysing my own alliance, I will purposely ommit stuff that I do not want made public, which is not ideal for someone whos trying to analyse the server, at all. For example I state, or rather assume, how each alliance is setting up their clusters, and what their plan might be. If I did that with our alliance, I would be either lying or flat out telling what we plan on doing. Since I know what we are doing, it is impossible to have an outsiders perspective on the alliance (ToH) and ends up somewhat blocking my thoughts. This is why I do not wish to dive deep into an analysis about our own alliance in particular. Hope people can relate and understand. I will however confindently say that Lemon is a noob. I think we all, Disney and ToH, can agree on that.

      - Tetra -
      No. of Accounts - 43
      No. of Villages - 145
      Villages/Accounts - 3,37
      Romans : Teutons : Gauls - 13 : 12 : 18
      No. of Accounts in Top100 - 3
      Average Pop -

      We do have ourselves another alliance in the Northwest. A rather active alliance might I add. Even tho VR and Tetra seem to have similar stats, I do think Tetra has something different to offer. With a number of their villages setup on almost the opposite end, the Southwest and Southeast border, I am very intrigued as to what they are planning for the server.

      As the raiders may have noticed a few hours ago, a lot of farms had turned up red. Tetra took it upon themselves to spike majority of the common farms. Truly a low blow.

      The Northwest has almost half of the top100 accounts in it. I think its safe to say the West is where the fun will be at. Majority of those top100 accounts lie between the top2 alliances Disney and ToH. Both the alliances have definitely shown that they can sim. But will they be able to come out on top against the heavy hitting metas of Aliens and Italians which brew up their own troops? Especially considering it is highly likely that the 2 alliances will have to go at each other in their own quad. Even after 1 of the sides wins, do they really win as they certainly wont remain strong enough to take on the Italians/Balkans head on? I do personally think that the Northwest is doomed. That even though we might see some brilliant accounts built, and see some excellent reports and clashes in the quad itself, it will be to no avail as the metas will be too far ahead. But oh well, smashing things is always fun. Lets see who smashes more.

      After discussing 6 Metas (with 23 embassies in toal) and another 5 solo alliances, we have ourselves at the end of this analysis. I would like to clarify, that I do realise a lot of this analysis has been about stats. And that in the end its not really all about the stats. But the conventional way does seem to have simming as a major part of the early stage. And right now it is that stage. Theres not much else to talk about as the heavy hitting and Ops haven't started yet. In the end, whoever has been the most organised and skillfull will win the server. Nothing I say here will change that, so dont take it the wrong way if I have said something which you disagree with. The end result triumphs all that can be written.
      They see me rolling
      They hating

      The post was edited 2 times, last by Blaze ().